CrossCheck Blog

Auto Sales Are Rising, But Payment Certainty Is Under Pressure US retail auto sales closed out 2025 on a stronger footing, even after a softer fourth quarter. According to new data from J.D. Power, full-year new vehicle retail volume increased by approximately 4 percent. On the surface, that points to a resilient market.

Debit cards have long been positioned as a low-cost, reliable way for merchants to accept payments. But recent data shows the risk equation has shifted. Today, merchants are absorbing a growing share of debit card fraud losses, even as fee structures and network rules remain largely unchanged. Recent analysis highlighted by PaymentsJournal, drawing on biennial data from the Federal Reserve, shows that merchants were responsible for nearly half of all debit card fraud costs in 2023. That marks a steady transfer of risk away from banks and toward the businesses accepting the payment, both in-store and online.

As dealers look ahead to 2026, one thing is becoming clear. The deals that get done will matter more, and the margin for error on each one will be smaller. Affordability pressure is shrinking the buyer pool. Credit approvals remain tight. Lenders are selective. Delinquency levels remain elevated across the market. None of this points to easier transactions ahead. In this environment, payment certainty is no longer a back-office concern. It is part of protecting the deal itself.

Digital payments continue to grow, but checks have not disappeared. Many customers still use them for larger purchases, repairs, and deposits, especially when the bill is higher than they want to put on a credit card.

Check guarantee usually costs between 1 and 2 percent of the transaction amount. The exact rate depends on the industry, transaction size, risk level, and how many checks or ACH payments your business processes. For many companies, the cost is similar to or lower than credit card processing fees. The difference is that approved checks are protected from loss.

A new analysis from the Cox Automotive Service Industry Study shows a trend that many dealerships are feeling. Service demand is rising, but fewer customers are returning to the dealership for repairs. The average age of vehicles in the United States is trending toward 12.8 years, which means more repairs and more opportunity, yet loyalty to the dealership where the car was purchased is declining.

Most deals do not fall apart because the buyer changes their mind. They fall apart because the buyer does not have the money for the down payment at the moment it is needed. The willingness to buy is there. What is missing is available cash or credit today.